Testing for Granger-causality in the Finnish roundwood market.

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dc.contributor.author Toppinen, Anne en
dc.date.accessioned 2009-02-17T15:38:59Z en
dc.date.accessioned 2009-06-17T14:12:02Z
dc.date.available 2009-02-17T15:38:59Z en
dc.date.available 2009-06-17T14:12:02Z
dc.date.issued 1997 en
dc.identifier.citation Silva Fennica. 1997. 31(2): 225–232. en
dc.identifier.issn 0037-5330 en
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/1975/8521
dc.description.abstract The existence and direction of causal relationships between the time series for the Finnish roundwood market for the period 1960–1994 is tested. Using simple bivariate analysis, we found evidence that for both logs and pulpwood, the lagged prices are helpful in forecasting quantity for the next year, but not vice versa. Sawlog stumpage prices have significantly Granger-caused pulpwood prices over the business cycles, but the effect has diminished towards the present time. For quantities traded, the direction of causality was rather from pulpwood to sawlogs. The consistency of bivariate test results was checked by the Granger-causality tests within trivariate VAR-models for both markets, and the results were found to be fairly similar to bivariate tests. The price fluctuations in the international markets for forest products have been found to be carried to domestic wood markets dominantly via the pulpwood part of the market. en
dc.language.iso en en
dc.publisher The Finnish Society of Forest Science and The Finnish Forest Research Institute en
dc.subject stumpage value, roundwood, market research, forecasting, statistical analysis, time series analysis en
dc.subject kantohinnat, raakapuumarkkinat, ennusteet, aikasarja-analyysi en
dc.title Testing for Granger-causality in the Finnish roundwood market. en
dc.type Article en
dc.identifier.laitoskoodi SMS fi
dc.creator.corporateName The Finnish Society of Forest Science en
dc.creator.corporateName Finlands Forstvetenskapliga Samfund sv
dc.creator.corporateName Suomen metsätieteellinen seura fi

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