Economic effects and political impacts : Assessing Western sanctions on Russia

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Title: Economic effects and political impacts : Assessing Western sanctions on Russia
Author: Gould-Davies, Nigel
Organization: Suomen Pankki
Bank of Finland
Department / Unit: Siirtymätalouksien tutkimuslaitos (BOFIT)
Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
Series: BOFIT Policy Brief
Series number: 8/2018
Year of publication: 2018
Publication date: 9.8.2018
Pages: 25
Subject (yso): ulkomaankauppa
Keywords: Bofit-kokoelma; Venäjä
Other keywords: Russia; enemy; sanctions; trade flows; oligarchs
Abstract: This brief assesses the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia, and their likely future impact. It examines the unique features of Russia as a sanctions target in the context of global sanctions experience. It then considers the goals that sanctions are intended to achieve, their impact so far, and the second-order effects of Russia’s responses. It concludes that, although the factors that typically correlate with sanctions success are absent, sanctions on Russia have nonetheless achieved important goals relatively quickly. Their impact will increase over time. Though speculative at this stage, recent oligarch sanctions and more stringent scrutiny may have significant consequences. They pose new and difficult choices for Russia’s business elite, much of which is dependent on the global economy. How oligarchs resolve these dilemmas has important implications for Russia’s domestic evolution.

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