A Bayesian Decision-Support Tool for Child Sexual Abuse Assessment and Investigation

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Pysyväisosoite

http://hdl.handle.net/10138/240786

Lähdeviite

Tadei , A , Pensar , J , Corander , J , Finnilä , K , Santtila , P & Antfolk , J 2019 , ' A Bayesian Decision-Support Tool for Child Sexual Abuse Assessment and Investigation ' , Sexual Abuse , vol. 31 , no. 4 , pp. 374-396 . https://doi.org/10.1177/1079063217732791

Julkaisun nimi: A Bayesian Decision-Support Tool for Child Sexual Abuse Assessment and Investigation
Tekijä: Tadei, Alessandro; Pensar, Johan; Corander, Jukka; Finnilä, Katarina; Santtila, Pekka; Antfolk, Jan
Muu tekijä: University of Helsinki, Department of Mathematics and Statistics
University of Helsinki, University of Oslo
Päiväys: 2019-06
Kieli: eng
Sivumäärä: 23
Kuuluu julkaisusarjaan: Sexual Abuse
ISSN: 1079-0632
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/240786
Tiivistelmä: In assessments of child sexual abuse (CSA) allegations, informative background information is often overlooked or not used properly. We therefore created and tested an instrument that uses accessible background information to calculate the probability of a child being a CSA victim that can be used as a starting point in the following investigation. Studying 903 demographic and socioeconomic variables from over 11,000 Finnish children, we identified 42 features related to CSA. Using Bayesian logic to calculate the probability of abuse, our instrument-the Finnish Investigative Instrument of Child Sexual Abuse (FICSA)-has two separate profiles for boys and girls. A cross-validation procedure suggested excellent diagnostic utility (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.97 for boys and AUC = 0.88 for girls). We conclude that the presented method can be useful in forensic assessments of CSA allegations by adding a reliable statistical approach to considering background information, and to support clinical decision making and guide investigative efforts.
Avainsanat: 112 Statistics and probability
515 Psychology
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