All-time low period fertility in Finland : Demographic drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications

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Hellstrand , J I S , Nisén , J & Myrskylä , M 2020 , ' All-time low period fertility in Finland : Demographic drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications ' , Population Studies , vol. 74 , no. 3 , pp. 315-329 . https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1750677

Title: All-time low period fertility in Finland : Demographic drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications
Author: Hellstrand, Julia Ingrid Sofia; Nisén, Jessica; Myrskylä, Mikko
Contributor: University of Helsinki, Population Research Unit (PRU)
University of Helsinki, Population Research Unit (PRU)
University of Helsinki, Population Research Unit (PRU)
Date: 2020-09-01
Language: eng
Number of pages: 15
Belongs to series: Population Studies
ISSN: 0032-4728
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/327091
Abstract: The ongoing period fertility decline in the Nordic countries is particularly strong in Finland, where the total fertility rate (TFR) reached an all-time low of 1.41 in 2018. We analyse the decrease in Finland's TFR in 2010–17, and assess its consequences for cohort fertility using complementary approaches. Decomposition of this fertility decline shows that first births and women aged <30 are making the largest contributions. However, women aged 30–39 are also, for the first time in decades, experiencing a sustained fertility decline. Tempo adjustments to the TFR suggest that quantum change is part of the decline. Several forecasting methods indicate that cohort fertility is likely to decline from the long-lasting level of 1.85–1.95 to 1.75 or lower among women born in the mid-1980s. Without an exceptionally strong recovery in fertility, Finnish cohort fertility is likely to decline to levels currently observed among countries with very low fertility.
Subject: 5141 Sociology
CHILDBEARING
COUNTRIES
DECLINE
EUROPE
FAMILY POLICY
Finland
GENDER EQUALITY
MOTHERS
NORWAY
Nordic fertility regime
QUANTUM
cohort fertility
fertility postponement
forecasting
non-parametric approach
period TFR
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