Microsimulation : Statistical Methodology and Assessment of Uncertainty

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http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:hulib-201703272185
Title: Microsimulation : Statistical Methodology and Assessment of Uncertainty
Author: Zhou, Meng
Other contributor: Helsingin yliopisto, Valtiotieteellinen tiedekunta, Sosiaalitieteiden laitos
University of Helsinki, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Social Research
Helsingfors universitet, Statsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Institutionen för socialvetenskaper
Publisher: Helsingfors universitet
Date: 2012
Language: eng
URI: http://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:hulib-201703272185
http://hdl.handle.net/10138/37438
Thesis level: master's thesis
Discipline: Statistics
Tilastotiede
Statistics
Abstract: Nowadays, microsimulation method has been introduced to different fields, such as Social Science, Medicine research and Economic study. This method evaluates the effects of the proposed interventions or policies before they are implemented in the real world. In this article, I concentrate on microsimulation method used in Social Science by firstly explaining two main streams in microsimulation world, Static approach and Dynamic approach, in them, how statistical models are used are carefully explained by giving examples in Dynamic approach. In the following section, a Norwegian case is studied, this case gives the typical example of how the dynamic microsimulation used in the labor force and child care research, the effects of four different reform options are measured in this study. In the last section, the empirical study of a Finnish static microsimulation model-JUTTA is carried out. The uncertainty of JUTTA is assessed and one of its sub model called Toimtuki (income-related supplementary benefit) is detected to have space to be more accurate. In order to do so, two statistical models- Linear Regression model and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) model are applied to it. From their results and diagnostics, we could conclude that both the Linear Regression and 2SLS successfully improves the accuracy of TOIMTUKI to some extent.
Subject: JUTTA
2SLS
Static microsimulation
Dynamic microsimulation
assessment


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