FINADAPT scenarios for the 21st century. Alternative futures for considering adaptation to climate change in Finland. FINADAPT Working Paper 2

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Title: FINADAPT scenarios for the 21st century. Alternative futures for considering adaptation to climate change in Finland. FINADAPT Working Paper 2
Author: Carter, Timothy R.; Jylhä, Kirsti; Perrels, Adriaan; Fronzek, Stefan; Kankaanpää, Susanna
Belongs to series: Finnish Environment Institute Mimeographs 332 (Suomen ympäristökeskuksen moniste 332)
ISSN: 1455-0792
ISBN: 952-11-2064-9
Abstract: A set of three scenarios of environmental and socio-economic conditions in Finland during the 21st century is presented. The scenarios were developed to provide a contextual framework for research into adaptation to climate change in the FINADAPT project. They have similarities to the IPCC SRES global scenarios, but they also differ from SRES because they are national in scope and they account for climate policy. The scenarios are labelled: Global Markets, assuming low greenhouse gas levels, high economic growth with rapid technological development (related to SRES A1T); Sustainability, assuming low greenhouse gas levels, sustainability goals with slower economic growth than Global Markets and rapid technological development (related to SRES B1); and Retrenchment, assuming high global greenhouse gas emissions, a world in blocs with unbalanced wealth, rapid population growth and obstacles to technological proliferation and trade (related to SRES A2). The scenarios span four time frames (climatological averaging periods in brackets): present-day (1971-2000), near-term (1991-2020), mid-term (2021-2050), and long-term (2071-2100), and the requirements for adaptation are then treated as if they apply in 2005 (present-day), 2020, 2050 and 2100. Quantitative scenario information on socio-economic development, climate, CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition and land use change has been provided, with detailed data available from the FINADAPT web site or from relevant partner institutes.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/41040
Date: 2005
Subject: FINADAPT
Subject (ysa): ilmastonmuutokset
sopeutuminen
skenaariot


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