The spread of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) within Finland and emergency vaccination in case of an epidemic outbreak

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http://hdl.handle.net/10138/44654
Title: The spread of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) within Finland and emergency vaccination in case of an epidemic outbreak
Author: Lyytikäinen, Tapani; Niemi, Jarkko; Sahlström, Leena; Virtanen, Terhi; Lehtonen, Heikki
Publisher: Evira
Date: 2011
Belongs to series: 1/2011
ISBN: 978-952-225-081-0 (pdf)
ISSN: 1797-2981 (pdf)
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10138/44654
Abstract: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral epizootic disease of cloven-footed animals, which is controlled both by domestic and EU legislation. FMD has not been found in Finland since 1959. The aim of this risk assessment was, by using Monte Carlo simulations, to assess how FMD would spread, the economic consequences of an outbreak and the feasibility of emergency vaccination in case of an outbreak in Finland. The study was based on data from the Finnish cattle and swine production sectors from 2006. If FMD was introduced to a Finnish pig or cattle farm, it would in most cases spread to four other farms and the disease would be brought under control after 5 weeks. In one-third of the cases, the disease would remain a sporadic case and would not spread at all from the first infected farm. Even a larger outbreak would remain relatively small and short. In the worst case scenario, FMD virus would spread to 29 farms before the disease was eradicated. The mean economic consequences of a sporadic outbreak would be €23 million. In the worst case scenario, the economic losses would be more than €38 million. Emergency vaccination is not a feasible option according to this study, because the current EU measures are able to stop the spread of disease and because vaccination can incur considerable extra costs due to prolonged export distortions.
Subject: Foot and mouth disease virus
epidemy
emergency vaccination
Monte Carlo simulaton
economic losses


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